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WDW Weather Forecast - August 30-Sept 15, 2012
I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss Sundays), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:
Weather at WDW - Updated Thursday pm, August 30, 2012
Looks like a high today of 91 with only isolated thunderstorms. A pretty strong high will begin to develop for tomorrow and Saturday with a 594mb heat bubble overhead. That should put highs 92-94 with only a slim chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Sunday the heat bubble moves west so Sunday through Thursday will run 90-92 with scattered afternoon thunderstorms (about a 30% chance).
Long range...Sept 7-15 looks mostly fine. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible every day. Highs will run from low 90s to upper 80s. Certainly normal for this time of the year.
Travel Impact
Still looking at delays in LA and MS today, but everyone else is fine. For tomorrow the delay threat will shift up to AR and MO.
Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!
Tropics
Isaac is just rain event now. Some small, spin-up tornadoes are possible as he moves north, but the good news is Isaac should bring some welcome rain to drought-hit Arkansas and Missouri, and eventually dropping quite a bit of rain on IL, IN, and OH.
Kirk reached hurricane status today with 75 mph winds, but he is no danger to land and will curve back out to see.
As expected, we also now have Tropical Storm Leslie on the board with 40 mph winds. She should reach hurricane status within 48 hours. However, all models also curve Leslie. The main threat will be to Bermuda. So, none of these storms are a worry for WDW.
See the 2012 Hurricane Policy for WDW HERE.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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We'll be there Aug. 15-22. How concerned do you think we should be about hurricane activity?
Thanks for the detailed and very interesting posts! I'll keep checking every day until our trip!
2004: Honeymoon! All Star Movies!
2006: All Star Movies
June 2008: Pop Century
October-November 2008: Pop Century
October 2010: Pop Century
August 2012: AS Movies...my son's first trip!
August 2013: CBR
August 2014: Pop
August 2015: Riverside!
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Originally Posted by wdwcarrie
We'll be there Aug. 15-22. How concerned do you think we should be about hurricane activity?
Right now I wouldn't be too concerned. I think system 90L will eventually develop, but it's way too early in the game to say if Florida will be impacted. The long range models rarely handle tropical systems well. Even if the long range models were showing a direct hit on Florida in that time frame I wouldn't be concerned. They just aren't accurate enough. Honestly, I think it'll be another 4-5 days before we begin to get a good idea where that system will eventually end up. So, is a Florida strike possible? Definitely. But given everything I see right now I don't think that's the most likely path.
And you're welcome! I'm glad to help.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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Thanks, we'll be there 8/8- 8/14 and I have been watching Ernesto like a hawk! Looks like it will be OK though as far as Florida is concerned.
Trips: Too Many to Count! Last Trips: April 2013 CSR; July 2013 Aloha Aulani, The Sequel, Hawaii. Multiple trips to WDW, DL, DCL!
Coming up: September 2013 "Scary September" at Disneyland/DCA/Universal Hollywood.
Proud DVC Members since 2004!
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Originally Posted by DVC2004
Thanks, we'll be there 8/8- 8/14 and I have been watching Ernesto like a hawk! Looks like it will be OK though as far as Florida is concerned.
Oh, yeah. No worries there. I don't see any tropical concerns during your trip.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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We're less than 2 weeks out, so it's time to start obsessively studying Chris' reports again! (the only weather reports worth following, IMHO--you have yet to steer us wrong! So, just steer us away from any hurricanes for this trip, K? LOL)
Christi
2014: May--POR & US/IOA; Nov--POR (1st rD--JJ5k!)
2013: May--POR
2012: Jun--POP; Aug--POP/Hard Rock
2011: Aug/Sept--US/IOA; Nov--POFQ
2010: Dec--CSR
2009: Sept--Poly GVCL
2008: Sept--POFQ
2007: Jan/Feb--POR; Sept: POFQ
2004: Oct--CSR
1987: off-site
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Originally Posted by tinksmom02
We're less than 2 weeks out, so it's time to start obsessively studying Chris' reports again! (the only weather reports worth following, IMHO--you have yet to steer us wrong! So, just steer us away from any hurricanes for this trip, K? LOL)
This is exactly what I do! the rest of the year I never read weather forcasts, but when I'm traveling I turn into a crazy obsessive person who checks multiple sources several times a day. Chris's is the best and after last years "Irene" tracking I have learned not to worry about potential tracks until days before, not weeks before! so with that said I'm only slightly impatiently waiting for the as-of-yet unformed storm that may or may not do anything to somewhere! we arrive on Aug 20th so as long as nothing bothers that, I can handle a rained out day, if need be, though its not a preference. If our plane can leave here and land there I'll be happy, until then I wont be fit to look at!
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Thanks, y'all. It's good to know I have obsessive fans.
You're right about hurricanes - until we're 3-4 days out on those it's useless guess the final track. We just don't have enough data out in the open ocean to really be able to tell what's going on with the storms until they're pretty close to land.
Now, as for your trips - whether or not there is a threat to Florida will depend on two things - whether there is a ridge or a trough over the eastern US and the position of the Bermuda high. A ridge over the eastern US like we had back in June makes it REALLY hot along the east coast, but it would also push any storm on a more southerly route and likely into Florida. An east coast trough would pick up the storm and pull it farther north. Also, will the Bermuda high be strong enough to deflect the storm? Though nothing is certain at all, I'd say the odds are decently in your favor that any storms developing during August would most likely be turned back out to sea, or would be pushed farther up the US east coast. Things just don't seen lined up right now for a Florida strike from the Atlantic. It could happen, but it's not as likely given current conditions.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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We are flying out of Boston at 9:00 am on the 22nd so hopefully we can get out of there and to Orlando!!
Fingers crossed!!
Thanks as always!!
J
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Originally Posted by jakeybake
We are flying out of Boston at 9:00 am on the 22nd so hopefully we can get out of there and to Orlando!
Right now I think you'll be okay. Models are continuing to develop tropical systems around that time frame, but it's looking like the Bermuda high will push them away from the US coastline. Hopefully that pattern will continue to hold true.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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when invest 92 forms into Gordon, I think it is, what would be an approximate time frame to expect an impact on WDW, if it even gets that far? thanks
Apr 2007 - ASMu
Apr 2008 - Offsite
Nov 2009 - ASMu
Feb 2011 - CBR
Aug 2011 - ASMu
Aug 2012 - POFQ
Sept 2013 - POR/AKV
Mar 2014 - AKV
Aug 2014 - AKV
June 2015 - VGC/Aulani
Nov 2015 - POP
Aug 2016 - CSR/AKV
Oct 2017 - AKV/BLT
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Originally Posted by Strmchsr
Right now I think you'll be okay. Models are continuing to develop tropical systems around that time frame, but it's looking like the Bermuda high will push them away from the US coastline. Hopefully that pattern will continue to hold true.
Thanks Chris. I always appreciate your input and information.
I will continue to keep my fingers crossed! Hoping the weather continues to be bearable through the end of the month!
Jay
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This from NOAA this morning:
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects a total (which includes the activity-to-date of tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debbie, Florence and hurricanes Chris and Ernesto) of:
12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
The numbers are higher from the initial outlook in May, which called for 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes. Based on a 30-year average, a normal Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
“We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season.”
However, NOAA seasonal climate forecasters also announced today that El Niño will likely develop in August or September.
“El Niño is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development. However, we don’t expect El Niño’s influence until later in the season,” Bell said.
“We have a long way to go until the end of the season, and we shouldn’t let our guard down,” said Laura Furgione, acting director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Hurricanes often bring dangerous inland flooding as we saw a year ago in the Northeast with Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. Even people who live hundreds of miles from the coast need to remain vigilant through the remainder of the season,” Furgione added.
“It is never too early to prepare for a hurricane,” said Tim Manning, FEMA’s deputy administrator for protection and national preparedness. “We are in the middle of hurricane season and now is the time to get ready. There are easy steps you can take to get yourself and your family prepared. Visit www.ready.gov to learn more.”
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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Originally Posted by mickeyman42
when invest 92 forms into Gordon, I think it is, what would be an approximate time frame to expect an impact on WDW, if it even gets that far? thanks
Most likely the end of next week, though it still doesn't look very likely that the system will come that far north.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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thanks
arriving the nite of the 20th so will keep checking to see what you say
BC 2
WL CL 1
AKL 4
SOG 3
POFQ 3
POR 2
CSR 4
CBR 2
Asp 3
AS m 2
POP 7
12-13 WL CSR ASM
3-14 POR, AS s Dolphin
6-14 Us CSR
1-14 Unv
6-15 WL, SSR.
11- 15. AOA, OKw
7 16..CSR, FW, AKL, POR
7 17..ASM, CSR, WL AKL club POP
8 18 As sports, Pop
DL 9-19
DVC WL, CSR and idk 10-20
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Ok, some im starting to get a little freaked out by the next wave coming along, not td7, but the next one! Yes i know i know way way too early, but i cant help it. We fly into mco on the 20th, if everything goes against us is it even possible for our flight to be disrupted by a storm? Can it even cross the atlantic that fast? I guess anything is possible, but realistically..... You know, give me the hard facts, i can take it...!
Apr 2007 - ASMu
Apr 2008 - Offsite
Nov 2009 - ASMu
Feb 2011 - CBR
Aug 2011 - ASMu
Aug 2012 - POFQ
Sept 2013 - POR/AKV
Mar 2014 - AKV
Aug 2014 - AKV
June 2015 - VGC/Aulani
Nov 2015 - POP
Aug 2016 - CSR/AKV
Oct 2017 - AKV/BLT
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Ok totally voodoo but I am now nervous about our 9/7-9/16 trip...can you ease my nerves?
Off-Site several times between 1983-1992
1993-Grand Floridian
1996-Poly
1998-Poly
2001-Poly
2004-Pop
2008-Pop "First MNSSHP"
2009-Coronado Springs" MNSSHP"
2010-Pop Century "MNSSHP"
Next Trip 10/01/2011 MNSSHP !
"Now approaching carousal of progress."
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Originally Posted by mickeyman42
OWe fly into mco on the 20th, if everything goes against us is it even possible for our flight to be disrupted by a storm? Can it even cross the atlantic that fast? I guess anything is possible, but realistically..... You know, give me the hard facts, i can take it...!
Yes, it could, but I don't see any reason for worry. This wave is moving to a high enough latitude that it should stay out at sea and not be a bother for any land. I'll keep an eye on it, though.
Originally Posted by Belster
Ok totally voodoo but I am now nervous about our 9/7-9/16 trip...can you ease my nerves?
Well, I suppose I could tell you I don't see any specific threats right now and that's completely true. The only thing I can say right now that far out is the current pattern is not conducive to a Florida strike. In general, most storms are going to go south or north of Florida with the current set-up. That can change, but that's the best I can give you at the moment. Also, keep in mind that WDW is open 365 days a year since 1971. In almost 15,000 total operating days it's had to close down a grand total of 7 days and 1 of those was due to 9/11. So, there's not a lot of reason to worry.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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Originally Posted by Strmchsr
No sign of extreme heat or tropical mischief for Florida.
Thanks, Chris! I was wondering about the development of TD7, as we're arriving Saturday.
Originally Posted by Strmchsr
Just purely for the sake of interest, something pretty cool is going on with the tropics. The tropical wave that eventually became hurricane Ernesto has traveled from Africa, all the way across the Atlantic, through the Caribbean, made landfall twice in Mexico and is now moving into the Pacific. It's quite likely that once in the Pacific it will regenerate. If so, it will not keep the name Ernesto. Instead, it will be called Hector, which is the next name on the Pacific list. This is an extremely rare occurrence and there is a possibility that the regenerated system could eventually affect the Baja region. Who would have thought this to be the case a week ago or more when we were tracking something that, at one point, could have ended up making landfall anywhere from Florida to Texas. Now, it’s eventual final landfall could easily be along the Pacific coast of Mexico.
Very cool. I didn't realize they'd rename the storm if it passed into the Pacific.
Thanks for all the updates! Hoping you have a very good and blessed Sunday.
Frank
DVC Owner
BWV, BCV, SSR
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Originally Posted by Maleficent's Dad
Thanks for all the updates! Hoping you have a very good and blessed Sunday.
Thanks Frank! You too.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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