WDW Weather Forecast - October 31 - Nov 16, 2007

[Momof2boys]

Looks like the weather is shaping up perfectly for our trip - low to mid 80's and not so humid

Try to keep Mother Nature on track, ok Chris ? Thanks

[Strmchsr]

Try to keep Mother Nature on track, ok Chris ? Thanks

Hey, I'm just in public relations, not management. You'll have to speak to the Big Boss about that.

[Iluvpooh]

I was just checking out your home page. Too cool-A pastor that blogs. Maybe you could talk to ours and tell him it would save a lot of money on newsletters.

Thanks for the weather updates. We will be there October 27th-Nov. 3rd and I am concerned that I may need to pack 2 wardrobes. One summer and one fall. How big of a temp. drop do you expect from the begining of the week to the end?

[Strmchsr]

We will be there October 27th-Nov. 3rd and I am concerned that I may need to pack 2 wardrobes. One summer and one fall. How big of a temp. drop do you expect from the begining of the week to the end?

Right now I'm not trusting the models enough to say. I think by the time you get there the main front will have passed through (and Alabama will have had its first frost), so the temps will be down, but not down excessively. We're talking mid to upper 70s and by the time you get there I think you're looking at closer to 80 most days for a high. The main factor will be cloud cover/rain potential and it'll still be a couple of days before the models begin to show anything consistent in that area, so just keep checking.

[Mommy2boys]

Heading down next week. hoping for great weather

[murphy1]

Hi Chris!! Thanks as usual for your hard work! I am really excited to be going. I keep reading we will have 20 to 30 % chance of showers and checked all around the area from Lakeland, Gainesville and Orlando, so that doesn't seem too bad. That's good right? I mean it isn't like the storms we get during the Summer everyday that I was used to. I hope you have a wonderful trip, I can't believe it's almost time for you to go! I really hope you win a dream, you really deserve it!

[Strmchsr]

Hey, Shari.

Well, actually for next week it is kind of the summer afternoon variety of thunderstorms you'll be seeing. Scattered to isolated, which means you may or may not have one come over, but they'll pop up in the late afternoon. Shouldn't be anything sustained until next weekend when a cold front will be approaching. Even that doesn't currently look to be a big rain producer.

Thanks for the good wishes. I hope you have a great trip, and we're definitely looking forward to ours very soon.

[murphy1]

I'm so glad we ARE getting rain in Atlanta! Our lake is really drying up and we are in dire need of it, so I don't mind.

[Strmchsr]

I'm so glad we ARE getting rain in Atlanta! Our lake is really drying up and we are in dire need of it, so I don't mind.

We're hitting the same thing here in Alabama. It's been so dry the Baptists are starting to sprinkle and the Catholics are trying to turn wine back to water.

[JerseyWDWfan]

I could cry! We leave the 29th and come home the 5th of Nov. If it rains the whole time we are going to be so unhappy.

What do I do for little kids and strollers? Bring ponchos or raincoats?

Kristina

[Strmchsr]

What do I do for little kids and strollers? Bring ponchos or raincoats?

First off, don't get too upset yet. This forecast is in no way set in stone. I just don't believe the front will sit stationary for that many days. It's possible, but I'd give it a couple of more days before deciding one way or the other.

Now, if the forecast as it now stands is correct - it won't rain all day every day, but when it does ponchos for the kids will be perfect. The WDW strollers have covers, but you can also buy stroller ponchos to help keep the kids dry. I don't think thunderstorms will be a big issue any of these days, just rain, which will make ponchos even easier to use.

Rainy days in WDW usually mean low crowds, so look on the bright side. I'll keep you updated.

[mickey-mouse35]

I'm still not 100% in agreement with the GFS, but all the models currently are indicating a pretty wet week next week.

Say it isn't so! We leave Saturday, and I'll be checking every day for possible changes and better news!
In Texas, it's been upper 80s until cold front last night. Now it's COLD--have the heaters on. Crazy weather!!!

[Iluvpooh]

NO NO NO!! We leave Saturday too. For my DDs 3 & 4s first trips. Please no rain!!

[JerseyWDWfan]

Hi - What's the difference between isolated and scattered thunderstorms?

And with the rain for Oct 29-Nov 5th, what will the UV index be?

Kristina

[Strmchsr]

Hi - What's the difference between isolated and scattered thunderstorms?
And with the rain for Oct 29-Nov 5th, what will the UV index be?
Kristina

Hi, Kristina.
If you're leaving on the 29th, check with me on the 28th for a revised UV forecast, but right now it looks like it'll be 5-7 for the first part of the trip and then 7-8 for the latter part.
Isolated means there are one or two lone showers. It's just an individual cell popping up here and there. Scattered means many cells or a wider coverage of rain, but that coverage is not 100%. These are pockets of rain, not a solid mass, but also not individual cells.

[mickey-mouse35]

Uh, stupid question-- what's a UV index?

[Strmchsr]

Uh, stupid question-- what's a UV index?

The only stupid question is the one not asked.

UV index is the ultraviolet radiation index. You might think of it as the "how quickly will I sunburn" index. It ranges from 1 to 10. A ten means the sun's UV rays will be intense and you need to make sure you're wearing sunglasses and applying a high spf sunscreen often. On the other end of the spectrum a 1 means total overcast and the chance of UV damage is slim to none.

[vamaggie]

OK not to be too freaked out: When you talk about a "severe weather event" on Nov 5th what does that mean? We are going Nov 1-6 and am hoping for it to be warm and not too rainy. Severe weather event (even in voodooland time frame) is freaking me out a little!!! Will we be able to go to the parks, fly out on the 6th?!!?!?!?!

[JerseyWDWfan]

We fly out the 5th - or at least I hope we will be able to - severe weather? Yikes!

Kristina

[Strmchsr]

A severe weather event means, unfortunately, exactly what it sounds like - the potential will exist for strong to severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes. most folks forget that that November-December is the secondary tornado season for the south. We usually think of severe weather in the March-May time frame, but it's just as common in November-December in the south.

That said, it really isn't anything to be too excited about right now. These things come and go on the models. When I only see them on 1 run, I don't mention them, when I see them on multiple runs I try to say something with a disclaimer. I really don't like doing forecasts more than 7 days because it's just about useless but I know folks on here want to know, so I go as far as I can with the models and do as good as i can with the model insanity.

As for flying out, yes, you'll still be able to fly out even if there are delays. Even if the planes have to fly in between individual supercells they can. Or they wait for the squall line to pass. Whatever they have to do, but you'll make it.

Like I said, don't worry. Chances are this feature will be gone in a day or two. And we'll be on to something else in voodooland. I'll keep you updated.