Each day in September, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Thursday pm, Sept 30, 2010
The high today should be around 85. For tomorrow through Sunday, highs will run 84-86 with lows 67-69. There is a slight chance of a shower on Saturday as a front moves in, but the front should be pretty dry and those showers will be isolated. Tuesday through Thursday some scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible, but they will be few and far between. With a lot not far off the Florida coast, I can't rule one out, but it doesn't look too likely. Highs will be 85-87 with lows 70-72.

Long range...Oct 8-17 looks completely the same today. Highs in the low to mid 80s, lows in the upper 60s, and mostly dry conditions with only a very slim chance of a pop up afternoon shower. Obviously, things can change in voodooland, especially with the tropics staying active, but the models have all dropped the idea of the Oct 12-13 hurricane. I knew it looked fishy when it first popped up on Monday and Tuesday, but we can't rule it out, and that idea still might come back. We'll just have to wait and see.

Travel Impact
At 1:30 pm CDT, Philadelphia, NYC (all 3) and Boston are reporting delays. No other airport delays are reported, but there are some HUGE travel issues along the east coast for drivers. Be careful! For tomorrow, DC to Maine will be the problem area.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
“Nicole” is officially no longer a named storm, and turned out to be a dud for WDW. The rain missed by about 100 miles. Sorry for all the worry on that storm. I get so frustrated when I do the best I can with these things and then they turn into a colossal dud like that. That's why I always remind you don't get too excited about any tropical system more than 3 or so days in advance.

Well, everything looked clear yesterday, but today the National Hurricane Center is investigating thunderstorm activity about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands. Basically two separate tropical waves decided to get together and their combining created an illegal (unforecast) area of activity. There is a moderate chance that this region could see tropical cyclone development by Saturday, and if it gets a name, the “O” storm is “Otto” this year. Storms out that way typically recurve or move toward Florida this time of year so we'll have to watch it closely. Now, the good news is that the SHIPS model keep intensity at a moderate level through Saturday and increases it for Saturday afternoon through Monday. That means the storm will have a fairly difficult time getting its act together. In fact, right now the ECMWF is the only model that develops the storm and it moves the storm towards the Bahamas, not Florida. The other models show an area of thunderstorms, but nothing organized off the Atlantic coast of Florida early next week, but only scattered thunderstorms around WDW. That said, there is a lot of variation in how the models are handling the steering currents for next week, so we certainly can't dismiss this storm right now.

Click here for Disney's 2010 hurricane policy.