WDW Weather Forecast - September 30-Oct 16, 2015

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Wednesday pm, September 30, 2015
It looks like the high today will reach 89-90. Tomorrow's high will be 87-89 then 85-87 for Friday with a 50-50 shot of scattered thunderstorms both days. Nothing major. Saturday and Sunday look mostly dry with only a 25% chance of a brief pop up shower. Monday through Wednesday should be completely dry with lower humidity. Highs for Saturday and Sunday look to be around 80, then 82-84 for Monday through Wednesday.

Long range...Model madness continues out in voodooland. Today's models show Oct 8-16 as mostly dry with just a chance of scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and highs in the low to mid 80s.

Travel Issues
No major issues for today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
I will say up front that there is nothing with potential impact for WDW any time soon so if that's all you need to know, you're clear. However, we do have a potential major hurricane that could impact the East Coast. Hurricane Joaquin currently has 85 mph winds and will be impacting the Bahamas over the next day or so. Then, all indications are it will head north in response to a deep trough digging in over the eastern USA. I hate to say this, but the potential for a historic (not in a good way) landfall is on the table. Joaquin is moving very slow at the moment, which will be a real problem for the Bahamas as it will see a prolonged period of hurricane winds, rain, and surf. Once Joaquin turns north, what then? Well, that's where all the uncertainty lies. Currently the Euro model takes the storm out to sea with no land impact. However, it's the outlier at the moment as the other reliable major models all take the storm into the US East Coast as a major hurricane. It's interesting to note that a few years ago the Euro perfectly nailed Sandy as the GFS tried to send the storm out to sea. So do we trust the Euro again? It is historically the best hurricane model. I won't bore you with all of the meteorological details, but essentially a cut-off low is going to set up on the lower part of the East Coast. The Euro has Joaquin strong enough to find an escape route to the east and head out to sea. All of the other models, though, have Joaquin caught up by the cut off low which then spins the storm right into the east coast, with potentially devastating effects. Right now I think the GFS and crew seem to have the better solution. That's not what I want to say, but it's what I see right now.

Now for some more bad news - the hurricane will be preceded over the next couple of days by some really intense rainfall from the remnants of Invest 99L that hit the Gulf this week as well as an approaching front. I'm really a lot more worried by flooding because of this huge rain event followed by a potential hurricane than I am the wind potential. So, if you live between North Carolina and Maine, get ready. Especially VA to NJ. The current NHC forecast is heading right into southern NJ on Monday but various models have landfall in NC, VA, MD, and NJ, all as a major hurricane. That could change, though. Let's get through the Bahamas and see what happens when Joaquin turns north. Start our preparations now, though. Don't wait until "panic" sets in if the storm does turn towards the East Coast.

[amylc]

Great , thats the week I am there.

[Strmchsr]

Great , thats the week I am there.

As I said, don't worry about it right now. That's just model data at the moment and not to be trusted until we get to the 7 day mark.

[NJGIRL]

Chris your reports didn't mention the humidity....how is it now?

[Strmchsr]

Chris your reports didn't mention the humidity....how is it now?

This week the humidity has been up but not at its worst. I was wondering if maybe it's just because I'm used to it so I looked at the hard data and dew points along with heat index hasn't been as bad as it could be. It's been noticeable but not miserable. A series of fronts over the next couple of weeks should keep things that way. There will be days when a front approaches where the humidity will be more noticeable (like today) but then once the rain passes things feel much better.

[MrPeetrie]

Thanks for the update. We leave in a few days. Anxious to get there.

[NJGIRL]

GREAT...it looks like rain all week that I am there.

[Strmchsr]

GREAT...it looks like rain all week that I am there.

Don't be too anxious about it just yet. Things are still iffy on that.

[Lizzie]

The weather is looking better for my trip next week. Thanks for the update.

[Mitzie]

Interestingly, the GFS model has a hurricane just south of Cuba and heading north on Oct 3. Now, that's complete voodoo but it does remind us that we aren't finished with hurricane season just yet.


Oh now this is just silly talk right!!? We arrive on the 1st for 6 nights...

[Strmchsr]

Oh now this is just silly talk right!!? We arrive on the 1st for 6 nights...

It's nothing to worry about right now. Long range models are worthless on specifics. It just tells us conditions could be right at that time.