WDW Weather Forecast - November 30-Dec 16, 2011

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss Sundays), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Wednesday pm, November 30, 2011
The high today will top out 63-64, but it probably feels a little chillier with a brisk north wind. The models are seeming a little warm right now, so I'm going 66-68 for tomorrow with a low 42-44. Friday will be 70-72 with a low 48-50. Saturday should be 74-76 with a low 52-54. Sunday will be 76-78 with a low around 55. Monday through Wednesday highs will be near 80 with lows around 60. No rain through the week. The models show a front moving in on Wednesday, but right now it looks like it fizzles out as it moves into Florida with little to no rain impacting Orlando. We'll see if later models show it holding together better. If so, that would up rain chances for Wednesday.

Long range...The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) actually shows a strong positive spike toward mid-December, which certainly doesn’t favor a big Arctic outbreak, and the operational GFS doesn’t show any at this point. It can get cold with a positive NAO, but not very often, so it looks like things may be fairly mild as we approach Christmas. At least on the overall pattern. Dec 8-16 looks pretty dry with highs running in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows around 60. The next significant chance of rain appears in the Dec 16-17 time frame and highs might drop to the mid 70s, but it doesn't look like a big cold outbreak.

Travel Impact
No major problems today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
And that's a wrap. We'll see this section again next June.

Click here to see WDW's 2011 Hurricane Policy.

[cuteduck223]

for the record, i love reading the weather report, even though our trip is still months away. Thanks for always updating!

[Strmchsr]

I appreciate it! For me, it brings a little bit of Disney to me every day picturing the weather.

[diz_girl]

Thanks for your reports. I'll be reading them intently over the next week for my trip from Nov 12-19. that the high doesn't break and I get a highs of upper 70s and lows in the 60s for my entire trip. After taking two trips during cooler months, I realized that I miss the Florida nights wrapping me in a coccon of warmth.

[lynnek]

When my trip dates fall within your forcast(even within voodooland) I get excited!!!! Yay!!

[BiloxiMom]

Very content with your predictions for my 11/12--11/19 trip... not so much with Accuweather's. Hoping you are right and they are really wrong!!

[Strmchsr]

Very content with your predictions for my 11/12--11/19 trip... not so much with Accuweather's. Hoping you are right and they are really wrong!!

The problem with Accuweather, like all of the fill-in-your-zip code sites, is that they only use 1 model and there is no human interaction at all. The computer just plugs in whatever numbers the model spits out. 2-3 days out, it'll usually be pretty accurate. Beyond that, not at all. Human forecasting is always way better because we look at the variety of models and can tell, based on current and historical patterns, which ones are handling the situation best. Here's hoping my forecast works out for you, too!

[tadcd]

Thank you so much for helping us prepare for our trip. We will have our 13 mo old with us and the great grandparents 80+ yrs. We are there 13 - 19, great grands 16 and 17th. I am worried about humidity. Does a high temp of 80 mean it will also be humid? Should we have rain plans as a back up for the 16 and 17? Sorry for so many questions. I appreciate any advice if you have time. -Teresa

[Strmchsr]

I am worried about humidity. Does a high temp of 80 mean it will also be humid? Should we have rain plans as a back up for the 16 and 17? Sorry for so many questions. I appreciate any advice if you have time. -Teresa

Teresa, the humidity could possibly be an issue, but not in the way you think. In general, this time of the year humidity during the day isn't bad and doesn't create discomfort like it does May-September/early October. However, in the evenings the humidity can make it feel considerably cooler, especially around DTD and Epcot. If you got those places in the evening, be prepared for that.

As for rain plans, it's always a good idea this time of the year to have a rain plan in mind as fronts can generally come through every 4-5 days, but right now during that time frame it looks like high pressure will be in control with no rain. Keep an eye on the forecast, though. I don't feel comfortable about any forecast until we're closer than 7 days.

[ginger19]

Thank you! It's always so exciting to see the forecast up for our trip. Here's hoping for repeat weather of last year's trip for our Nov 18-25th trip!

[tadcd]

Thank you for your great explanation! The most I u derstand about weather are the cotton ball clouds we made in grade school, lol. We will so much more confident with our family with this information, much appreciated!

[jnfr2424]

When my trip dates fall within your forcast(even within voodooland) I get excited!!!! Yay!!

I thought I was the only one who felt this way!
Thanks so much Strmchsr for all that you do!

[Strmchsr]

I thought I was the only one who felt this way!

Actually, I get pretty excited by it, too. Even though I know the forecast won't be accurate until a week out, just seeing my dates in voodooland lets me know the trip has almost arrived.

[Disney Hungarian]

This is the first time I can remember that a storm was named after me. I don't like it. I don't like it at all. I hope I get lost at sea and only disrupt the shipping lanes.

[Strmchsr]

This is the first time I can remember that a storm was named after me. I don't like it. I don't like it at all. I hope I get lost at sea and only disrupt the shipping lanes.

That's exactly what should happen. No worries with this storm.

[lynnek]

Thanks for getting rid of the rain for Friday--F&W will be better without

[ginger19]

Thank you I obsessively stalk this post daily now that I leave on the 18th

[Strmchsr]

Thank you I obsessively stalk this post daily now that I leave on the 18th

I've always wanted to have my own stalker. Now I feel like a celebrity.

[jakeybake]

Hey Chris,

I'm already peeking at your forecasts and I don't arrive until December 3rd!

It was very, very cold last year during the same week, in the 30's at night. I'm a bit worried about it being the same thing this time around. I was there the same week the year before that (yearly conference) and it was in the 80's so I'm hoping last year was a fluke!!

Patiently awaiting your December 3rd update!

Jay

[Strmchsr]

I was there the same week the year before that (yearly conference) and it was in the 80's so I'm hoping last year was a fluke!!

Jay, last year was definitely a fluke (just like when I was down in Jan 2010 and we had snow flurries and 33 degrees at noon!). Obviously we're too far out for me to say what the first of December might be. The pattern we're currently in makes it about a 50/50 chance of temps being above/below normal. A complete coin flip right now. So, give me another week and we should start to get an idea of what early December might hold.