WDW Weather Forecast May 31-June 16, 2009

[Strmchsr]

Each day in May, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday pm, May 31, 2009
Another beautiful, warm day with a high around 88. We're hitting the time of year that's pretty boring to be a forecaster. I could just about write - highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s, 30% chance of an afternoon thunderstorm starting tomorrow through the end of August and I'll be correct 98% of the time. That's not going to quite be the case this week, but it's getting close. Tomorrow and Tuesday highs wil be 88-90 with very isolated afternoon showers. On Wednesday the high will still be near 90 with storms being a little more widespread, but still nothing major. Thursday through Saturday it's a good bet you'll see a thunderstorm at some point during the day. Thursday looks like the best rain chance, but it's possible, and even likely, all 3 days. Now, the thing about this system is that yesterday's models showed this disturbance going south of Orlando. Previous to that it came over Orlando. Today is back to the old way of thinking, but that's not set in stone yet. We'll have to see what tomorrow brings. This won't be an all day rain, no matter what, but keep a poncho handy. Highs are hard to predict. If the storms fire early in the day the high will stay in the upper 70s. If they fire late you're looking at mid to upper 80s. Sunday will be back to a high around 90 with isolated afternoon thunderstorms.

Long range...Here's what I was talking about earlier. Right now, June 8-16 looks like typical summer weather. Highs will be around 90, give or take a couple of degrees, with nothing more than pop up afternoon thunderstorms. The GFS is trying to introduce the idea of a tropical system mid-June, but that's pure voodoo right now.

Travel Impact
No major delays at 1 pm CDT. For tomorrow, the severe weather focus will be across NE, KS MO, IA, IL, IN, and OH.

Tropics
The North Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins tomorrow and continues until November 30th. There are no disturbances in the Atlantic right now that threaten to become tropical cyclones and the numerical weather prediction models don’t show anything of concern over the next week.

[gauvin4]

Thanks for the update. I hope you have a great vacation.

[sleepingbooty]

It's probably too late to ask you this, Chris - because you may not be online and we're leaving in an hour - But I'll take a shot: What is your pick waterpark day for next week (16th-23rd)? Looks like a lot of rain all week. Thanks!

[Strmchsr]

It's probably too late to ask you this, Chris - because you may not be online and we're leaving in an hour - But I'll take a shot: What is your pick waterpark day for next week (16th-23rd)? Looks like a lot of rain all week. Thanks!

Just in case you check at some point - I think the best rain chances will be late afternoon so if you want to do a waterpark my suggestion is try and do it in the morning. Thunderstorms will be pretty common in the afternoon.

[Strmchsr]

The hurricane season in the Atlantic does not officially start until June 1st, about two weeks away. But the National Hurricane Center has issued the outlook below this afternoon for an area of disturbed weather. It is interesting to note that the GFS picked up on this development over the weekend even though it presented with solutions that varied from run to run. The fact that it identified this area at all is good. So, this is the system I've been talking about the last few days and now it's wait and see as to where it goes.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
340 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN CUBA…THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS…AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY…IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[akaDisneyDreamer]

So glad I found this post. We are arriving at WDW on the 22, staying until the 29th and have been concerned since all I see forecast for every day is thunderstorms! So, I'm hoping it will be no worse than last July when we arrived in the rainy season, there was a short rain shower every day, and then the sun came back out ... is that sort of what I can expect next week?

[Strmchsr]

So glad I found this post. We are arriving at WDW on the 22, staying until the 29th and have been concerned since all I see forecast for every day is thunderstorms! So, I'm hoping it will be no worse than last July when we arrived in the rainy season, there was a short rain shower every day, and then the sun came back out ... is that sort of what I can expect next week?

Well...the forecast is changing constantly. It's kind of hard to say right now. The current pattern is extremely complicated. So, what's I'm really saying is no one knows for sure just yet. I know that's very frustrating for someone about to go on vacation. At this moment my best guess is that rain will be a little more common May22-24 (Friday through Sunday) then Monday through Thursday it'll be just isolated pop up afternoon thunderstorms. I'm waiting on the afternoon model run before saying anything about the 29th, though, as the morning runs show a strong tropical storm moving into FL on the 29th. That'll probably change this afternoon, so check back when I update around 1 pm CDT.

[the other micki]

My neighbors are there this week with 2 little ones. I hope they still make the most of things despite all of the rain!

[Strmchsr]

My neighbors are there this week with 2 little ones. I hope they still make the most of things despite all of the rain!

Fortunately, though the rain has been heavy, it's not unworkable as long as you don't mind being a little wet. Hopefully they'll have a good time!

[akaDisneyDreamer]

I know that's very frustrating for someone about to go on vacation. At this moment my best guess is that rain will be a little more common May22-24 (Friday through Sunday) then Monday through Thursday it'll be just isolated pop up afternoon thunderstorms. I'm waiting on the afternoon model run before saying anything about the 29th, though, as the morning runs show a strong tropical storm moving into FL on the 29th.

Yes, it is a little frustrating since we've been anticipating this vacation since we booked it back in November! But, we are keeping a positive outlook and hope the weather cooperates enough that we will be able to to have a wonderful time anyway!

[Jared]

Haven't posted in months, but I've been reading this thread compulsively the next couple days and will continue to check it until my trip.

Chris, how accurate are your predictions for the weekend of May 29-31? Is it too early to really know much? I have less than three days in the parks and hope one of those isn't a total washout.

How do you think we'll make out?

[Strmchsr]

Chris, how accurate are your predictions for the weekend of May 29-31? Is it too early to really know much? I have less than three days in the parks and hope one of those isn't a total washout. How do you think we'll make out?

Well, considering the circumstances for next week -- not very accurate right now. I have fairly low confidence in the long term forecast at the moment because several of the global models have the tropics being very active to kick off the season. Whether or not one of those actually impacts Florida (as is being shown on today's models) remains totally up in the air. I don't think you'll have a complete rain out any day at the moment, but we'll have to see how things play out over the next few days. I promise I'll be as accurate as I can!!

[Jared]

Thanks for the quick response. I'll keep my eye on the thread. Not too worried about a few thunderstorms. It's the total washout I'm hoping to avoid. Your post gave me a bit of confidence!

Keep up the great work!

[Jared]

Anxiously awaiting the next update. I'm still a week away from stepping on the plane, but I'm allowed to obsess a little, right?

[playdead88]

we'll be there from the 23rd through the 30th - im keeping my fingers crossed for at least 4 days of sun - my kids who are 15 and 8 have decided this year they would like to hang out at the pool during the day and take advantage of EMH in the evenings - im not sure how the weather is going to cooperate with that plan - either way im sure we'll have a wonderful week rain or shine

[Strmchsr]

Anxiously awaiting the next update. I'm still a week away from stepping on the plane, but I'm allowed to obsess a little, right?

I just got in from an all day hurricane drill for the state of Alabama. I'll have the update in about an hour (4:30 pm CDT).

[Strmchsr]

In its initial outlook for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season (which was released yesterday), which runs from June through November, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center calls for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season. Global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years. This is largely because we're in the middle of shifting from a La Nina to an El Nino pattern, but exactly when that shift occurs will make all the difference in what type of hurricane season we have. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5). NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook does not project where and when any of these storms may hit. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches.

[Jared]

As of today, not looking too good for my weekend, is it? I'm almost enjoying this game. It's an adventure! I want some sun next weekend! I can handle the thunderstorms. It's the all-day washout I'm worried about.

[Strmchsr]

As of today, not looking too good for my weekend, is it? I'm almost enjoying this game. It's an adventure! I want some sun next weekend! I can handle the thunderstorms. It's the all-day washout I'm worried about.

It's probably going to be up and down for the next couple of days. It's fun/frustrating for me because the models are in complete chaos so it's a real challenge trying to nail anything down. My gut feeling says your weekend won't be a washout, but today I had to go more with what the pattern was showing.

[Jared]

Brutal, Chris! You're killing me! I'm reserving hope because you said you are not confident with the forecast beyond Tuesday. Let's keep the weekend dry!