Economic Downturn

[RocklandRVers]

Has there been any effect on Disney attendance as a result of the economic downturn? Maybe its too early to tell?

[AwPhooey]

I don't know specifically about camping reservations, but when I was at WDW in October attendance seemed similar to previous years.

We assumed it was because people had paid for their trips well in advance of the economic downturn.

[WDWdriver]

Surprisingly, WDW attendance was actually up slightly in the last quarter. But CEO Bob Iger said recently that early resort hotel bookings for 2009 are down "considerably".

[jonahbear2006]

Well, it won't keep us away. In Feb, we paid $4. a gal to drive down and camp and we will be coming next year, too. We will eat Ramen noodles if we have to.

[Polynesian Dweller]

Because people have to book rooms, ADRs, etc. so far in advance for WDW there is a lag in the effects of a downturn of about 6 months for Disney. But, as WDWDriver reports, they certainly can see that the 6 month out bookings are not strong and analysts are expecting to see theme park revenues down next year. That would suggest that by mid 2009 crowds should decline unless Disney's promotions work.

[lockedoutlogic]

Bookings are down in a big way....as Iger commented.

Disney won't show you their ledger books....but the people in CRO and on the ground at the resorts can look at the forecast numbers a pretty good distance out....so Disney keeps very close tabs on trend...

it's more complicated than that....
as they divide up foreign travel, domestic, local, repeat, first time, and geographic origin in their tracking....and compare it to a plethora of historical numbers. Travel 'segments'. There will be tons of florida promotions rolling out this year....as they fall back on the local residents when economic times are bad.

They are still the cream of the crop at tracking and forecasts....they almost have to be with their ridiculous operating budgets.

But the public can get an idea in two ways:

1. Advertising....how the ads are put together in print and on TV will tell you alot. Like the Disney/affordable ads that started running a year and a half ago. that is a sure sign they see something they don't really like. Disney is never that 'affordable'....kids from Harlem aren't getting on Jetblue for their 'affordable' trips to orlando.

2. Package promotions. Currently 7 nights for 4 (room AND tickets) and GIFTCARDS@#?@#?

The giftcards are the kicker....as merchandise and food sales is where their profits lie. If they are giving people store credit, then they are sacrificing the additional revenue that they design 99% of their operations around getting....
i don't recall them ever going to those kinda lengths....
not even when i worked there after 2001 and everyone on the East Coast was too scared to get on a plane....

[CU Tiger]

I bet the big deals we are seeing now for next year will only get better. Vegas will almost give away hotel rooms to get you to gamble. Disney is not much different and needs to get people to come down to spend money on their merchandise. It is my guess that a lot of people are waiting to see which direction the economy will go before making reservations. There are a lot of jobs out there that were very secure that are no longer secure. We are taking a chance and plan on going back again in March. Think positive!

[mickey98]

Just back from our yearly trip to the fort and for the first time in many years the campground was empty. We ourselves almost considered cancelling our trip due to high diesel prices for our motorhome but as time got closer fuel prices came down however, the cast members at the fort said reservations have been cnacelling left and right.

[csdavis]

We are considering cancelling ours that are for after Christmas. We have had our reservations for over a year. We are not in a crunch but I'm afraid of what is to come. If we go, we will definitely not be eating at the restuarants- there are 6 of us. Any one else scared to part with their cash or am I overreacting?

[princessesmom]

I think most people are nervous about parting with cash right now and that includes me. We have reservations for February - my family of 6 in a cabin and my parents in their RV. My husband and I decided a while back if we both still have our jobs we would go. We hate to disappoint the kids and we do have money set aside for the trip. So far we have our jobs, though my income will likely be considerably less next year, which also makes me nervous about parting with cash.

We were able to get a better deal on the cabin with the recent 4/3 promotion. However there have been no deals on the campsites. My parents got a AAA discount, fortunately, but nothing else. I thought maybe the campground wasn't as impacted as much, since it is less expensive.

[RocklandRVers]

We have been looking down the road to Christmas 2009 for a big family gathering. A lot depends on our ability to trade in our smaller Class B and get a new Class A motorhome which are now priced well below normal.

We were looking at one that has bunk beds and could sleep about 8 people. That would be very cost effective on a per person basis leaving us more money for park tickets. I am going to book it ahead anyway and get the gang to start hording their money.

[Ian]

We are considering cancelling ours that are for after Christmas. We have had our reservations for over a year. We are not in a crunch but I'm afraid of what is to come. If we go, we will definitely not be eating at the restuarants- there are 6 of us. Any one else scared to part with their cash or am I overreacting?

You're overreacting. If your situation hasn't changed there's no reason to modify your travel plans. In fact, doing so will only make things worse when multiplied by the hundreds of thousands of other people doing the same thing out of fear.

Economic downturns are based largely on public perception and people doing exactly what you're thinking of doing. Your situation hasn't changed, yet for some reason you're considering "cutting back." And what does cutting back do? Further depresses the economy. If there's no reason not to spend what you normally spend, then spend.

As far as park attendance, we just got back yesterday and the parks were the most crowded I've seen in four or five years of early December trips. Lines were crazy long, ADR's were impossible to get, and the stores were packed. In fact, we joked many, many times (and heard others making the same comments) that you'd never know there was any economic problem in the U.S. based on how packed the parks were!

[Hammer]

You're overreacting. If your situation hasn't changed there's no reason to modify your travel plans. In fact, doing so will only make things worse when multiplied by the hundreds of thousands of other people doing the same thing out of fear.

Economic downturns are based largely on public perception and people doing exactly what you're thinking of doing. Your situation hasn't changed, yet for some reason you're considering "cutting back." And what does cutting back do? Further depresses the economy. If there's no reason not to spend what you normally spend, then spend.

As far as park attendance, we just got back yesterday and the parks were the most crowded I've seen in four or five years of early December trips. Lines were crazy long, ADR's were impossible to get, and the stores were packed. In fact, we joked many, many times (and heard others making the same comments) that you'd never know there was any economic problem in the U.S. based on how packed the parks were!

Ian, you may think it is overreacting, but not knowing the industry the poster is in, it may be a real concern. There are industries that are being hit with massive layoffs, as over a half a million people lost jobs last month alone. Now, I know you found a new job relatively quickly; many others were not that fortunate, regardless of how good their contacts are. For example, I have a cousin in Florida who was laid off from her private school teaching job. She can't find a new job because all of the counties have a teacher hiring freeze. Let's not even start if you have a job dependant on the auto industry. How bad things could get for an individual does depend on their industry.

Not surprised about park attendance as I don't think we will see the effects of the economy until next year in the Parks, as people plan vacations ahead of time. All my contacts have said the bookings for 2009 are down, though they have improved with the packages offered.

Now, after saying all that, I still say keep your reservations if your situation allows. Only you know what could happen in your occupation's industry.

[Auntie]

We were there the first week of November. We had to move from POR(long story..but unhappy with the resort) I called reservations and was able to get (with a discount code) my choice of accomodations. We transferred to the WL..but had also consider Old Key West, Caribbean Beach, and Poly. All were available to us at discounted rates on the day I called for the entire length of our stay. I was shocked..I figured we have a hard time transferring without having to pay full rack rate. No problems at all. Made me wonder if people had been cancelling reservations, as there appeared to plenty of rooms available.

[csdavis]

We are thinking of cutting back ahead because we own a business that relies heavily on the automobile industry. I agree it is a chain reaction but I feel like I should be responsible in making sure I can provide for my family if something happens.

[Ian]

Ian, you may think it is overreacting, but not knowing the industry the poster is in, it may be a real concern.

I don't disagree. I was just going based on the OP's statement that they weren't in a crunch.

If there are expectations for a downturn in your own situation in 2009, then absolutely ... you should consider cutting back.

I definitely didn't mean to imply that people should be fiscally irresponsible all in the name of stimulating the economy.

[Auntie]

Has there been any effect on Disney attendance as a result of the economic downturn? Maybe its too early to tell?

I can't comment to attendance, however
I was reading today about the Poly cutting back on some of the acitivities/amenities offered because of the economy. I imagine some of the other resorts may be doing the same. The torch lighting and entertainment in the lounge are to be discontinued as of next week.

[Ian]

There's no doubt Disney is cutting back in the entertainment area. As best I could tell, they've already cut out the tree lighting ceremony at Epcot. At least the stage was gone, anyway.

There were other areas where I definitely noticed things missing, cut back, or scaled down. For example, at the Osborne Lights and at MVMCP, I saw no snow. Now I may have just missed it, but I was looking for it and it never materialized.

[vicster]

We went in September and stayed at POFQ. I thought the parks were more crowded than in previous years - we've gone in September since 2001. I was actually surprised at how crowded they were - could be the free dining.

[Ian]

Perceptions are so funny ... we were there in September and I thought it was dead as compared to past September trips we took. But I've seen more than one person comment they thought it was busy for September.

And then this past week I thought it was mobbed for early December and yet I heard others say they thought the parks were quiet for this time of year.